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How accurate is Texas’ Armadillo Day prediction in Fort Worth?

Move over Punxsutawney Phil — see how armadillo Bee Cave Bob’s predictions measure up against Fort Worth’s recorded weather for the last five years.


If Bee Cave Bob explores his pen, it’s time for an early spring.

Today is Armadillo Day, Texas’ version of Groundhog Day when Hill Country armadillo Bee Cave Bob determines the forecast for the next six weeks. How accurate is the little nine-banded weatherman?

In the last 136 years, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil has had a 39% accuracy rate, opting for six weeks of winter 108 times.

While not as long-standing, Bob has predicted 14 Armadillo Days, and since 2018, all have been early springs — except for 2021, which was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Let’s look back at the recorded averages for the last few years to see how they compare. In Fort Worth, the average temperature is 50.5º in February + 58.2º in March, but “spring temperatures” usually range 57.5º-77.5º.

2023 | February: 52.4º | March: 60.7º
2022 | February: 46.2º | March: 58.5º
2021 | February: 41.1º | March: 61.4º
2020 | February: 49.6º | March: 63.4º
2019 | February: 50.2º | March: 55º
2018 | February: 51.1º | March: 63.3º

See what Bob predicts for 2024.

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